Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An Externality View -- by Anton...
We show that capital flows to emerging market economies create externalities that differ by an order of magnitude depending on the state-contingent payoff profile of the flows. Those with pro-cyclical...
View ArticleRecent Manufacturing Employment Growth: The Exception That Proves the Rule....
This Paper challenges two widely held views: first that trade performance has been the primary reason for the declining share of manufacturing employment in the United States and other industrial...
View ArticleIncreasing Community College Completion Rates among Low-Income Students:...
Community colleges are an important part of the higher education landscape in the United States, but completion rates are extremely low, especially among low-income students. Much of the existing...
View ArticleRules Versus Discretion: Assessing the Debate Over the Conduct of Monetary...
This paper reviews the state of the debate over rules versus discretion in monetary policy, focusing on the role of economic research in this debate. It shows that proposals for policy rules are...
View ArticleShort-Run and Long-Run Effects of Milton Friedman's Presidential Address --...
The immediate effect of Friedman's 1968 AEA presidential address on the economics profession was the introduction of an adaptive term in the Phillips curve that shifted the curve, as Friedman proposed,...
View ArticleLabor Market Concentration -- by Jose Azar, Ioana Marinescu, Marshall I....
A product market is concentrated when a few firms dominate the market. Similarly, a labor market is concentrated when a few firms dominate hiring in the market. Using data from the leading employment...
View ArticleAugmenting Markets with Mechanisms -- by Samuel Antill, Darrell Duffie
We compute optimal mechanism designs for each of a sequence of size-discovery sessions, at which traders submit reports of their excess inventories of an asset to a session operator, which allocates...
View ArticleMars or Mercury? The Geopolitics of International Currency Choice -- by Barry...
We assess the role of economic and security considerations in the currency composition of international reserves. We contrast the "Mercury hypothesis" that currency choice is governed by pecuniary...
View ArticleThe Causal Effect of Limits to Arbitrage on Asset Pricing Anomalies -- by...
We examine the causal effect of limits to arbitrage on 11 well-known asset pricing anomalies using Regulation SHO, which relaxed short-sale constraints for a random set of pilot stocks, as a natural...
View ArticleModel Uncertainty, Ambiguity Aversion, and Market Participation -- by David...
Ambiguity aversion alone does not explain the market nonparticipation puzzle. We show that in a rational expectations equilibrium model with a fund offering the risk-adjusted market portfolio (RAMP),...
View ArticleStock Market Overvaluation, Moon Shots, and Corporate Innovation -- by Ming...
We test how market overvaluation affects corporate innovative activities and success. Estimated stock overvaluation is very strongly associated with R&D spending, innovative output, and measures of...
View ArticleThe Importance of Education and Skill Development for Economic Growth in the...
The neoclassical growth accounting model used by the BLS to sort out the contributions of the various sources of growth in the U.S. economy accords a relatively small role to education. This result...
View ArticleHousing Disease and Public School Finances -- by Matthew Davis, Fernando V....
Median expenditure per student in U.S. public schools grew 41% in real terms from 1990 to 2009. We propose a new mechanism to explain part of this increase: housing disease, a fiscal externality from...
View ArticleCosts of Inefficient Regulation: Evidence from the Bakken -- by Gabriel E....
Efficient pollution regulation equalizes marginal abatement costs across sources. Here we study a new flaring regulation in North Dakota's oil and gas industry and document its efficiency. Exploiting...
View ArticleExploiting MIT Shocks in Heterogeneous-Agent Economies: The Impulse Response...
We propose a new method for computing equilibria in heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate uncertainty. The idea relies on an assumption that linearization offers a good approximation; we share this...
View ArticleNorms in Bargaining: Evidence from Government Formation in Spain -- by Thomas...
Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties' seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to...
View ArticleThe Bunching Estimator Cannot Identify the Taxable Income Elasticity -- by...
Bunching estimators were developed and extended by Saez (2010) and Chetty et. al. (2011). Using this method one can get an estimate of the taxable income elasticity from the bunching pattern around a...
View ArticleMaking Discretion in Monetary Policy More Rule-Like -- by Frederic S. Mishkin
This paper argues that the rules versus discretion debate has been miscast because a central bank does not have to choose only between adopting a policy rule versus pure discretion, both of which have...
View ArticleThe Affordability Goal and Prices in the National Flood Insurance Program --...
The United States Gulf Region features areas that face significant flood risk. Climate change may further elevate this risk. Home owners in such areas face potentially large asset losses and property...
View ArticleArtificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and...
Inequality is one of the main challenges posed by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) and other forms of worker-replacing technological progress. This paper provides a taxonomy of the...
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